Futurepundit asks. I'm not sure I entirely agree with his assessment. I'm not convinced that some of his predictions will have come true in fifty years much less the ten or twenty he gives some of them. Within Ten Years (U.S): 1. Growing retiree population 2. Medical care 3. Energy Infrastructure redesign following more Eastern Seaboard style blackouts. 4. Protein/Genetic/Stem Cell research 5. Genetically Modified animals (as we have GM Corn right now). Within Twenty Years (U.S and World): 1. African Terrorists (Not necessarily Islamic) (I suspect we may see a biological, chemical, or radiological terrorist event by twenty years, but not necessarily by ten) 2. Economic competition/tension with China and Southeast Asia 3. Alternate fuel sources 4. Selective reproduction 5. Pending collapse of the EU Within Thirty Years (U.S. and World) 1. Human Cloning 2. Eugenics (designer babies) 3. OPEC nations near collapse as oil reserves dry up. Influence shifts to Canada (oil sands) and off-shore drilling projects. 4. Cybernetic Implants for fun and profit 5. Senescence research Within Forty Years 1. Human Cloning 2. Eugenics 3. Cognitive Machinery
4. Genetic Engineering (designer organisms)
5. Senescence research
Within 50 Years
1. Cognitive Machinery
2. Neural Implants (wetware)
3. Extraplanetary colonization (territoriality)
4. Robot cognition
5. Nanotech machines
So, there's my list. Most of my entries are based on science and technology. I think that a lot of social concerns will remain more or less the same. Things like social welfare and education will always be important to people and I don't think that will change in fifty or one hundred years. They are sort of background issues and I don't think they will prove to be keystone issues. Likewise, things like gay marriage and racial issues will fade as we cease to care about them (and I do think that will happen).
I will include a disclaimer here about the order of my list. Science and technology can change terribly rapidly and it isn't very predictable so we could see some of the 50 year projections come true in 20 and not realize some of the 20 year projections for 50.
Another thing I've not focused on too heavily are buzzword issues. Global warming for example. I think global warming is a foolish premise at best. The earth's climate has never been particularly stable for as far back as we can research. I don't think humans have much impact on making it more or less stable. It's also unpredictable. There will be many major geological and climatological events in the future, but it's nearly impossible to predict when they will occur. The climate will change. Yellowstone will probably erupt again, a meteor will eventually collide with earth. Politically I don't think there is much we can do about it. Pass a law forbidding volcanic eruptions maybe.
Anyhow, I also chose a number of things on my list because there will be moral challenges from both sides of the aisle. Conservatives will be worried about playing god with genetics. Liberals will be worried about the rights of cognitive machinery. Things of that nature will be what fuels the political discourse as these issues come forware. The non-science issues like demographics will prove to be challenging political issues as old people fail to die. We will end up increasing the working life of people, changing retirement plans, battle with medical costs. All of these things will have to be addressed and all of them will likely be addressed individually.
I didn't put much about energy policy in the list because it will likely take care of itself. We know that there are alternatives, and we even have a good idea of what they are. There is also an impressive amount of research being done on making them feasible. The only real important political aspect is how the balance of power will change as we deplete the easily extracted oil reserves found in the Middle East and move to less easily accessed oil found in oil shale and oil sands and under the sea bed. The thing that stops us from accessing alternates to fossil fuels is that fossil fuels are handily concentrated fuels and we don't have the technologies to replace them while keeping the costs comparable. I laugh at people who insist we don't have to be dependent on fossil fuels not because their ideas won't work, but because their ideas won't work now (except for the tinfoil hat people who know how the harness zero-point energy or angular momentum. I just laugh at them because they're fucking nuts). Only the market and technology will decide when we can operate as a hydrogen or nuclear economy and that won't be for some time. Thus energy policy will generally be relegated to the realm of background issues. Yeah, it's important, but it's not likely to be radically so.
So, I figure the most important issues will be ones that affect humanity's, um, humanity. Things like designer babies and clones and cybernetic implants will be bitterly debated (probably more in the U.S. than almost anywhere else).
The first ten years I focused on the U.S. The rest are generalized. I don't mind making a few other predictions here more broad and less politically charged. The current delegation of power around the world is changing even as you read this. Europe has lost a lot of its prestige. I don't see any signs that it will come roaring back in the near future. The focus of U.S. and world affairs is slowly starting to ignore Europe. Their political influence is become less relevant and soon Europe will be treated like some dear crazy uncle. The Middle East will be temporarily important. Without radical social change, however, they will not continue to be as important. Middle Eastern countries must find a replacement for their oil wealth. I'm not aware of any of them doing that. I think power will next emerge in Asia. It could be China, but I think India is more likely. I think I will live to see a revolution in China. I don't know whether it will be violent, but there will be change and upheaval, and their growth will be deflected. If there is a violent revolution, it could begin with Taiwan. If India can find peace with the Muslim population, I think it will surpass China. I think we will see a lot more trouble in Africa and South America. I'm not sure either of those places will have much prominence in the world for the next fify or more years unless something radical happens. Europe will remain important to the U.S. economically, culturally and historically, but not so much politically. Australia has important cultural and historical ties with America. We have similar social structures, and they will be an invaluable ally as we turn our attention towards Asia and the Pacific. Watch for expanding military collaboration.
Many of the things I mentioned are barely emerging right now. Some of them will develop more rapidly than others. I put nanotech far down on the list. I don't think we will be able to pursue nanotechnology until we have a better grasp of matter and energy. Quantum mechanics gave us mastery in chemistry; I think we will need an equivalent breakthrough to pursue nano scale machinery. Genetics is already an issue and it will grow in importance as we hone our abilities. I think that research in proteins and protein folding will prove to be the holy grail of genetic engineering and modification. When we understand how and why proteins fold the way they do we will have a near complete picture of the mechanics of biology. After that, we will have what knowledge we need to understand how the entire system works, to understand the big biology picture. Cybernetics is more speculative I think. We are making in-roads into merging organic and non-organic bits to make computer chips and eventually computers. I don't think there is any reason to think that we will not be able to build the bionic man at some point (figuratively speaking). The real leap forward will come when we can integrate neurally with computers. It's already on the horizon with artificial eyeballs (cameras) and the talking monkey device. I think the really big hairy deal will be the cognitive machinery. And that, I think is a topic worth its own post.
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